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Pokémon TCG · MEG

Mega Evolution pull rates & booster box value

How often each rarity shows up in a Mega Evolution booster pack, measured from 5,000+ packs opened by the TCGplayer Authentication Center, and what that's worth at today's market prices: about $1.91 in hits per pack.

Cards
188
Set value
$1,296.20
Top card
$206.35
Released
September 26, 2025
Hits value per pack
$1.91
Hits value per booster box
$68.71
Box costs $302.73
Box value vs. price
23%
Chance of an SIR per box
30%

Mega Evolution pull rates by rarity

RarityOdds per packCardsAvg. priceValue per packAt least 1 per boxTop card
Double Rare1 in 5(20.91%)10$0.73$0.15100%Mega Kangaskhan ex · $1.39
Ultra Rare1 in 12(8.23%)22$4.18$0.3495%Lillie's Determination · $19.42
Illustration Rare1 in 9(10.89%)22$5.25$0.5798%Bulbasaur · $16.97
Special Illustration Rare1 in 101(0.99%)10$70.33$0.7030%Mega Gardevoir ex · $163.88
Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1250(0.08%)2$180.31$0.143%Mega Lucario ex · $206.35

Pull rates from 5,000+ packs; value = odds × the average TCGplayer market price of that rarity's cards, updated daily. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos are left out, and a real box can land far from the average. TCGplayer pull-rate study

Is opening worth it?

Expected hits value of each sealed product's packs next to its market price. Over 100% means the hits are worth more than the box on average; accessories and promos aren't counted.

Compare booster box value across every set →

Questions

What are the Mega Evolution pull rates?
Per booster pack: Double Rare 1 in 5, Ultra Rare 1 in 12, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 101, Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1250. These come from more than 5,000 Mega Evolution packs opened by the TCGplayer Authentication Center.
Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth opening?
On average, no: the hits in a Mega Evolution booster box are worth about $68.71 at today's prices, less than the box's $302.73 (23%). Buying the singles you want is usually cheaper than opening for them.
How many Special Illustration Rares are in a booster box?
About 1 in 101 packs has a Special Illustration Rare, so a 36-pack box has roughly a 30% chance of at least one.