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Pokémon TCG · CRI

Chaos Rising pull rates & booster box value

How often each rarity shows up in a Chaos Rising booster pack, measured from 8,500+ packs opened by the TCGplayer Authentication Center, and what that's worth at today's market prices: about $1.19 in hits per pack.

Cards
122
Set value
$432.61
Top card
$112.87
Released
May 22, 2026
Hits value per pack
$1.19
Hits value per booster box
$42.85
Box costs $179.59
Box value vs. price
24%
Chance of an SIR per box
35%

Chaos Rising pull rates by rarity

RarityOdds per packCardsAvg. priceValue per packAt least 1 per boxTop card
Double Rare1 in 5(20.30%)10$0.57$0.12100%Mega Greninja ex · $0.80
Ultra Rare1 in 12(8.29%)18$2.40$0.2096%Mega Greninja ex · $8.06
Illustration Rare1 in 9(10.66%)11$2.80$0.3098%Xerneas · $5.43
Special Illustration Rare1 in 83(1.21%)6$38.40$0.4635%Mega Greninja ex · $111.83
Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1000(0.10%)1$112.87$0.114%Mega Greninja ex · $112.87

Pull rates from 8,500+ packs; value = odds × the average TCGplayer market price of that rarity's cards, updated daily. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos are left out, and a real box can land far from the average. TCGplayer pull-rate study

Is opening worth it?

Expected hits value of each sealed product's packs next to its market price. Over 100% means the hits are worth more than the box on average; accessories and promos aren't counted.

Compare booster box value across every set →

Questions

What are the Chaos Rising pull rates?
Per booster pack: Double Rare 1 in 5, Ultra Rare 1 in 12, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 83, Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1000. These come from more than 8,500 Chaos Rising packs opened by the TCGplayer Authentication Center.
Is a Chaos Rising booster box worth opening?
On average, no: the hits in a Chaos Rising booster box are worth about $42.85 at today's prices, less than the box's $179.59 (24%). Buying the singles you want is usually cheaper than opening for them.
How many Special Illustration Rares are in a booster box?
About 1 in 83 packs has a Special Illustration Rare, so a 36-pack box has roughly a 35% chance of at least one.